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Aftermath: Future New Dark Age
Part of why I want to re-post my old write-up in collapse is because I recently was reading this book, 'Aftermath: Seven Secrets of Wealth Preservation in the Coming Chaos' by James Rickard.
In this book, James Rickard wrote about the novel 'The Mandibles: A Family, 2029-2047', a 2016 novel, by American author Lionel Shriver. He pointed out that a reversion to agrarian-level tech is unlikely given how technology has changed.
My thoughts are that systems collapse needs many things happening together within a short period of time. Disruption of oil and gas supplies, a global financial crisis, or a regional war, these “bad events” alone by themselves is not sufficient.
Hence, my repost:
This particular post is an inspiration of many various articles that I have specifically searched and looked for on the internet.
To begin with, I must give credit to the sources and reference materials that I tapped on. First and foremost, the originating idea for this post came into being when I happened to read an article by Niall Ferguson, a British Historian, whose brilliant article “A World without Power” I came across quite by accident on the website of the Foreign Affairs magazine. In the article, Mr Ferguson described a world where the US as a whole pulls back military forces from outside the US and disengages in a massive way from the rest of the world. The danger, as described in the article, is not a multi-polar world where the EU or China steps up to share the throne of ‘world power’, but instead, a world where nearly all major powers are in full retreat, leading to a ‘apolar world’. In this apolar world, the world reverts back to a new dark age as globalisation goes into sharp reversal, and a sharp increase in maritime piracy and conflict zones would result in a drastic drop of maritime trade and air travel. Here is the hyperlink to the article: https://foreignpolicy.com/2009/10/27/a-world-without-powe
I was intrigued by the article. In this modern age, we have technology. My default assumption, in the past, was that it is not possible to end globalization completely. The technologies that enables cheaper and faster transportation and communications have spread too widely to disappear completely, and that, by itself, would mean that the world would be held connected in some way. But after reading and re-reading the article, I realized that a heavily de-globalised world would still be one where the internet, smartphones, laptop, automobiles and jet airliners still exist but the geo-political situation has changed a lot.
In doing so, I started to do a lot of research on the internet. I found many useful articles, which are:
The Stratfor article was interesting because it highlights the Bronze Age collapse. Reading up on the Wikipedia page, it also highlighted that instead of just one or a few reasons for the collapse, what we have instead if a General Systems collapse, where inter-connections and inter-depenency between the various kingdoms, empires, dynasties and economies of Near East, Asia Minor, the Aegean region, North Africa, Caucasus, Balkans and the Eastern Mediterranean were so close and so tightly held together that problems spread like a virus.
The result was a rapid collapse in the various civilizations, with a sudden drop in population levels and trade. Cities vanished and the population of urban settlers moved back to the countryside to survive on subsistence farming.
I would like to emphasize that the this is not a forecast or a prediction in any way, shape or form. I am NOT saying that any of these will eventually happen. This is merely a worst-case possible scenario, resulting from systemic collapse of the global economy if it should happen.
For a start, there would be no Armageddon. The decrease in living standards would come eventually. However, technology, especially the internet will survive. Shortage of food supplies but basic food staples will remain stable and consistent. However, nations that already experienced food riots in the past decade will go through the same thing all over again.
Based on this World Bank webpage, countries like Argentina, Cameroon, Pakistan, Somalia, Sudan, and Tunisia were highlighted.
Just to make it absolutely clear, there will NOT be anything remotely resembling ‘Mad Max’. Technology like automobiles, laptops, smartphones, the internet and air travel would still be around. What has changed is the global geopolitical situation on a massive scale.
Just to be clear, a major geopolitical shift by itself is not enough to send the world into a new dark age. Just to give an actual real-life example, the Great Depression of the early 1930s was a severe economic disaster but the world survived and eventually recovered.
Likewise, World War 2 affected virtually every single country on earth, be it directly or indirectly, but the world went nowhere near a dark age.
The oil embargo by Arab nations bought a severe economic shock but the world economy still grind on.
The first Gulf War still saw the rest of the world going on as per normal.
The Arab spring bought vast changes to the political landscapes of North Africa. Two middle east nations, Syria and Yemen, are now firmly in the category of failed states, while most North African nations are already failing states. Yet, events of the Arab Spring are event that appears on TV screens for residents of the economic tigers of Asia-Pacific region.
Hence, even the worst and most extreme global recessions, oil embargoes, wars and political disorder by themselves are not enough to send the world into a dark age.
Yet, for nations closer to the epic center of these crises, it may feel like the world is ending. Take for example, the 1997 Asian financial crisis, in which many Asian countries were hard hit, especially Indonesia. The Indonesian currency collapsed to historically unseen lows, food prices shot through the roof and unemployment surged to record highs. Within weeks, the capital city Jakarta was consumed by an orgy of violence, rioting, and looting by at least tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, of looters and rioters, while the military and police did nothing as they were simply outnumbered. Sectarian violence broke out throughout the archipelago, and there were very real fears that the entire country will balkanize, leading to civil wars and refugees’ numbers in millions flooding the rest of South-East Asia. There was no war with an external party, just economic chaos, and yet, it devasted the entire region. But the rest of the world was fine.
So imagine, then this scenario, in alternate reality where while at the height of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, for some reason (pick your own imaginable cause) all members of OPEC immediately halt any and all oil and gas production, and they are joined as well by Azerbaijan, Brunei, all the central Asian nations. Not a single drop of oil or gas even leaves these countries. Meanwhile, Russia launches a full scale invasion of Ukraine. In our real world, the US government, and other nations, took measures to fight the GFC and though it has ended, we are still feeling the after-effects.
In this scenario, where the world is already dealing with the collapse of the economy and oil supply, could the world still deal effectively with military conflict in eastern Europe?
Hence, I draw up this scenario where ALL of the below-mentioned leading causes must occur within a few weeks of each other. Every event must occur together in a roughly 1.5 to 2 year period and their ripple effects would cascade on each other, creating massive systemic breakdown of the global civilization. If even just one event DOES NOT occur, then the world still has a chance of averting a ‘New Dark Age’.
Event 1: the US economy goes into deep recession. The cause can be anything, from falling house prices to a major Wall Street bank going into sudden bankruptcy. Irrational Panic seizes the world’s financial markets and the US, realizing that it is now both a major food producer and shale oil producer, decides that it can live without the world. It still maintains military bases in the Middle East, Asia and Africa but only with token forces. Military spending is cut, and it becomes reluctant to intervene with the rest of the world’s security problems.
Event 2: Middle East Oil and Gas supply stops: The Middle East gulf nations of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain, UAE, Qatar are no longer able to export any oil and gas. The cause could be civil war in Saudi Arabia due to sectarian violence between the Sunni majority and Shiite minority; or maybe Saudi Arabia, UAE and Bahrain launches a war against Qatar, and Turkey and Iran pull in on Qatar side. Or there is a militant coup in any one of these nations and the first order of business is to mine the Strait of Hormuz. Thanks to the shale revolution, this would have made the USA one of the largest oil exporters in the world.
Event 3: A mega-hurricane, the likes of which have never been seen before hits Louisiana, which results in the shutting down of nearly all oil refineries in the Louisiana area.
For the scenario to proceed, all of the above 3 events must occur together at the same time. After which, thanks to the ripple effects of the above-mentioned 3 events, the following events will occur.
Event 4: China’s economy comes for an extremely hard landing as Event 1 meant export orders dry up, foreign and local manufacturers in China start closing factories in China. Event 2 meant that oil and gas supply to China is sharply reduced, which drastically reduces industrial activity within China. Unemployment surges in the private sector, however, it would be restrained. The CCP will issue orders, under threat of arrest, that SOEs and large businesses are not to engage in any form of retrenchments, and that banks and financial institutions are to carry out lending as per normal. However, the CCP will remain tightly in control of the country. There will be no break-up of the country. While riots increase by a hundredfold all across the country, driven by peasants angered by the rural-urban inequality, political centralization by the CCP in China remains firm.
The CCP, in order to distract the local populace with military action overseas, declares the entire South China Sea (SCS) an ADIZ (Air Defense Identification Zone), with demands that any and all sea vessels and airplanes entering the SCS must receive permission from the PLA or be shot down or sank. China’s PLAN might seize the Philippines-held Thitu Islands, as a show of force (China currently claims sovereignty over Thitu island). A meagre counter-attack by the Philippines Navy results in China deploying its fleet of Xian H-6 bombers to carry out aerial bombardment of the Philippines’ military bases as well as Manila.
This disrupts global trade. Cargo ships become reluctant to travel through the SCS, making the economic crisis in China worse, while the US, already dealing from the effects of an economic crisis and oil crisis, is unable to intervene. Vietnam and Indonesian navies, attempting to asset that the seas of ASEAN are international waters, sail warships right through the SCS, leading to minor naval skirmishes. These minor skirmishes, especially between Vietnam and China, which have long been traditional enemies, result in another border war. Intending to open another battlefront with Vietnam, China’s PLA move entire divisions into Laos and Cambodia (Laos and Cambodia are already de-facto vassal states of China right now). Foreign manufacturers in Thailand, fearing another ‘Indo-China’ war, shut down their factories in Thailand, sending Thailand’s economy into a tailspin.
The upper-class and wealthy elites of China, facing massive devaluation of the Reminbi, engaged in massive capital flight. In a panicked move to stem capital flight, the Chinese authorities close the border with Hong Kong and Macau, in the view that the Macau casinos and Hong Kong’s banks were part of the capital flight movement. Hong Kong’s stock market crashes and had to be closed indefinitely.
Event 5: EU total collapse. With oil prices skyrocketing worldwide to Event 2 and 3, Russia senses an opportunity. It launches a full scale invasion of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, and sends troops to seize and occupy Norway’s offshore oil drilling platforms, Gotland (Sweden's largest island) as well as small pieces of Finland’s northern artic tundra, in a swift overnight move. At the same time, it cuts off all oi and gas exports unless the EU recognizes the annexation of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, Sweden’s Gotland Island, and Norway’s oil fields. NATO is unable to respond effectively as the US is distracted. The Euro crashes and rapidly devalues. The countries of the Southern Europe, such as Spain and Italy, having elected far-right governments, and smelling blood in the water, announced their immediate withdrawal from the EU and reinstatement of their own sovereign currencies. This sets off a chain reaction where the Euro keeps sinking in value, forcing several EU members to reinstate their own currencies. The EU as a political entity remains in existence with over 20 members but is severely weakened. The Euro as a currency has gone extinct, but the customs union itself has remained.
Event 6: the Arab spring happens again, this time all over North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa. Civil wars break out all over North Africa and Central Africa, and with no outside intervention possible, the violence spreads. South Africa and the Coastal states of East Africa managed to hold it together but closed their borders off.
Both Turkey and Iran sense opportunities. Iran starts invading Eastern Iraq, while Turkey moves to annex all of Cyprus, sparking yet another war with Greece. Fearing Iranian ambitions, Turkey moves to annex Northern Iraq, drawing the entire region yet into more conflict. It may move to invade Armenia as well.
Event 7: Due to the influences of Event 1 to 6, the economies of Latin America are hit hard. The drug cartels and gangs of Mexico and the other central American states, sensing weakness, form alliances to launch coordinated attacks on hundreds of government buildings and police stations, in an attempt to force the authorities to the negotiating table for amnesty deals. Fearing the worst, the Cabinet of Mexico’s government over-reacts and evacuate to Miami. A provisional military government rapidly crushes the cartels and gangs, but having tasted power, are unwilling to return to civilian rule. Loyal factions within the military launch a counterattack to restore civilian rule. Mexico breaks out into civil war.
The rapidly declining economic conditions may push Venezuela to the brink. It may launch a foolhardy attack on Colombia, which would ultimately fail. The ultranationalist, right-wing government in Brazil, fed up with provocations by the left-wing socialist government of Bolivia, goes to war with its neighbors. Argentina may even try to retake the Falklands by military force again.
Events 4 to 7 carry their own momentum and the pace pickups. At this stage, the US so-far remains untouched, because even though it is still suffering from the worst economic crisis it has ever undergone, it is still a major world power and has total oil and food independence. But even so, problems start to appear.
Event 8: Because of event 7, tens of millions of refugees flow in from Central America to the Southern US. Not just by land, but by sea too. From the Yucatán Peninsula through the Caribbean, thousands of boats, carrying refuges by the hundreds of thousands, stream towards New Orleans and Florida. The US military finally closes down the border for good. Deportations and expulsions now occur at an all-time high, using force at the barrel of a gun.
Event 9: Both Pakistan and India face massive economic recessions due to global events. Hoping to distract an increasingly-unhappy public, both sides unwittingly provoke each other with increasingly riskier military manoeuvres and public statements till another border war starts.
Continental USA: The USA will be far better able than nearly all other countries to deal with the ‘New Dark Age’. However, pockets of chaos and disorder would be present. The US does not have to worry about energy shortages (due to shale revolution) or food crisis (due to its vast agricultural farms in the mid-west). In fact, the US will be a net food exporter to the rest of the struggling world. However, it will face severe water scarcity, exacerbated by climate change. There would be some instability in the US economy. However, manufacturing may actually shift back into the US, as the rest of the world isn’t producing anymore consumer goods. However, rapid chain effects would strangle the recovering in manufacturing in the embryo stage.
The biggest impact would be on the US financial markets. For a short period of time, there would be an initial rush of foreign capital into the US, as governments and foreign investors worldwide seek a safe haven asset, which would be US based equities and treasuries but this would eventually slow down to a mere trickle. With much of the world economy fragmented, foreign countries would lack the capital to continue to buy US treasuries. Those who could afford to do so would simply focus purely on physical gold.
Note: in the real world, most US debt (in the form of treasuries), are actually held by local US investors, and US companies. However, a drastic drop in foreign buyers, without local buyers making up for the gap in demand, may send future payments on US treasuries into default.
Facing a default on US treasuries, this would result in massive budget deficits. The US government will halt all social welfare payments and the supply of food stamps would stop completely. This lead to massive riots all over USA, and a increase in crime. In order to cover the widening deficit, the government would impose higher taxes. However, rising inflation from a rapidly devaluing US dollar may cause ripple effects on businesses and consumers alike, leading to lower spending by both businesses and consumers, leading to lower revenue for businesses and lower salaries for everyone. Unemployment may actually return on a massive scale, in the double digits. The American government would increasingly focus on defense needs and humanitarian concerns closer to home. Rapidly deteriorating states in Central America (from El Salavador to Guatemala), and the disappearance of government control in the rural areas of Mexico, will mean the US government will spend time and money to construct an actual hard concrete wall alongside the entire US-Mexico border, in record time.
However, failing states in Latin America may send as much as over 30 million refugees or more (over a period of 5 years) streaming over the border into the US, overwhelming the border. Vast refugee “tent cities, each comprising as much as a 100,000 people, appear all over the southern US. All of which will result in the straining of public services.
The collapse in public services in the various US states would see the crime rate in US soaring by a hundredfold.
US maritime trade alongside the Caribbean Sea will be disrupted as piracy returns in a big way, with pirate warlords controlling fleets of hundreds of speedboats, each consisting of a dozen guys with AK-47s attacking cargo ships and tankers. Florida-based tourist cruises will completely halt.
The US has abandoned its role as “global cop”.
The biggest change in USA has been a sharp move toward an extremely centralized, federal government system. This is because of the failure of state and local governments in dealing with the economic and refugee crisis. States still elect their own governors, although it is now widely understood to be a powerless and ceremonial position.
Caribbean: Warlordism has returned to some of the Caribbean islands. Those that has managed to retain central rule has to face crime rates and economic growth is non-existent.
Latin America: NAFTA has disappeared. Sovereign currencies throughout Latin America have collapsed utterly and have been replaced by either the US or Canadian dollar. Foreign investment in Latin American is non-existent and infrastructure crumbles. In Mexico, the elite upper-class retains control of the cities and urban areas, while the rural areas are in the hands of warlords with their own private armies. Most of the central American states have collapsed into failed states, except for Panama, which now has an entire US army division stationed right next to the canal. Ironically, the narcotics trade has disappeared as disposable incomes dropped in the US. Elsewhere in South America, hardline governments return everywhere and the landlords have emerged as a new aristocracy.
Japan: Japan’s economy never recovered from the global economic collapse, with it’s banking and financial systems existing in a zombie-like state. Its exports (cars, household appliances, electronic goods) come to a complete halt. Japan, in an act of desperation, re-introduces compulsory conscription to absorb unemployed men and also aggressively remilitarizes due to unstable oil supplies. It also has formed chain of military garrisons with the countries of Pakistan, Myanmar, Thailand (with their permission) ostensibly to guard its oil supply chain, but also to counterbalance the weakened but still powerful and nuclear-capable China.
China : China is now a major weapons exporters, selling arms (including missiles) worldwide to all factions and groups, even to warlords, in exchange for food and oil. But economic growth has reached zero. Slowing oil supply forces China to return to its own coal in a big way, worsening pollution
India: Malaria, Cholera and dysentery have reached mega-epidemic levels . The formal economy has disappeared. The national government holds firm with the military, guarding the national borders but Religious and customary laws are now the norm in rural India and powerful families, rich businessmen, and political dynasties now form their own private militias, controlling their own fiefdoms in over large swaths of land. Feudalism and its negative effects return to rural India.
South-east Asia (SEA): Economic depression, with no recovery in sight. Political instability become the norm in unstable countries such as Burma, Cambodia and Laos. Indonesia’s military undertakes more aggressive measures to hold the islands today, while the Philippine balkanizes completely, with the currently existing private armies growing into private factions controlling different regions (in real life, there are over 50 private armies in the Philippines). Thailand and Vietnam, the world’s biggest rice exporters, will still deliver rice to the rest of South East Asia. However, the Philippines and Indonesia, with the lack of the vast river deltas that provide water to rice lands, will see drastic drop in rice production. Severe riots have broken out in most Indonesia and Philippine cities. Insurgents may gain effective control of all of Southern Philippines.
Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore remain relatively politically stable, but mass unemployment add to social ills.
Regional trading and financial institutions have vanished. Organizations like the UN and the WTO no longer exist. Different trading blocs set different standards for trade, commerce, banking and finance. Trade between trade blocs are almost non-existent.
The internet: IT growth has revered. The rise in military conflict has seen the world’s first true ‘Cyber-Wars’, with both state and non-state actors wreaking havoc everywhere. Paranoid ober IT sevurity, governments everywhere start to wall off their own internet infrastructure, bringing the ‘Splinternet’ into full-fledged reality. Worldwide IT standards are now different, based on regional standard, with the US operating one for the whole of the Americas, Western Europe with one, and South-East Asia shifting in and out constantly between the standards set by China and Russia.. Interoperability between different trader blocs is near-impossible.
Food: Global food supply chains would crack. By and large, most of the developed world will escape famine but there would be much less variety in the supermarkets. Major agricultural producers would still see their populations being well-fed (like much of North America, Europe, Vietnam and Thailand).
Export embargoes will push several hundreds of millions of people to mass hunger. Most countries would be able to avoid famines, though famine will still occur in a few countries. What would be certain would be mass malnutrition occurring in many parts of the world, especially the “Global South”.
Problems in the emerging markets or developing countries in Latin America, Africa and South Asia: Power plants and gas stations can’t buy fuel; supermarkets can’t purchase food; banks don’t have cash in their A.T.M.s; hospitals can’t buy medicine. Common-place Energy black-outs due to unstable supplies in hydrocarbons (oil and gas) will result in scarcity, pushing energy prices to record highs. There will be extremely frequent blackouts. Energy grids will fail due to lack of maintenance in remote areas.
Failed States: Somalia-like conditions but far more widespread. For particular vulnerability, the hardest hit would be the Global South, such as Latin America, Africa, South Asia and some countries of South East Asia. North America (USA, Canada), UK, Western Europe, Japan, South Korea, and Australia would be hard hit, but the government would remain strong as state institutions are matured. There would be massive street protests and some social unhappiness but not anywhere near Mad-Max style. There would be massive unemployment though, with stagnant wages.
Autocratic states like China and Russia would remain in power. However, the emerging markets and developing nations would be hard hit. This would be doubly true in countries where state institutions are not so mature yet. Mexico be a strange case, where the state would clearly remain in control but many of the towns and rural areas would literally function as breakaway states in all but name.
For central America, Panana would remain stable, backed by foreign financial support, especially by the US, whom would be keen to see the Panama canal remain operational. Costa Rica and Belize, which have remained much stable in terms of governance, are likely to ride through it out.
However, Africa, South Asia and smaller nations would be hard hit. Job losses, Fewer air travel (airlines cut back on routes as passengers have no interest in spending money to travel to unstable regions).
There would still be global trade, but a mere fraction of what it once was.
Increasing number of fragile states
Rising instability worldwide crushes many emerging markets. Flow of credit and capital becomes non-existent. Public services disappear. Malaria and dengue fever, in particular, are widespread in South America, sub-Saharan Africa and parts of South Asia; In several of the least developed countries, child and infant mortality rates as well as maternal death rates have doubled, while life expectancy has fallen.
In many countries with the worst “youth bulge” problems, unemployment rate for young people between 15 and 30 years of age is well over 50 percent.
The lack of proper services within the world’ mega-cities means that giant mega-slums are now the norm, and instead of growing vertically, they grow horizontally, driven by mass migration from rural areas.
Deforestation in the Amazon, in Indonesia and Arica increases at a dramatic rate. The collapse of economic growth in Africa and Latin America causes logging and land clearing to come to a complete standstill. However, deforestation of the Amazon grows at a breakneck rate but not to human logging. Instead, climate change has caused desertification to actually happen at the centre and heart of the Congo rainforest and Amazon Basin. Within 5 years, the first man-made desert of 100,000 square kilometers finally appear at the heart of the Amazon Basin.
Economic hardships displace over 100 million people in South Asia, with India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Indonesia experiencing the worst effects. Already, a number of major mega- cities in the South Asia sub-continent are functioning as independent entities in all but name
The Global Economy: The economies of the US, Canada, Europe, Japan, South Korea, China, Australia are declining because of non-existent export. A few countries, such as those in the Arabia Gulf (provided they managed to restart oil production) or Canada and Australia will prosper, largely due to revenue from oil or grain exports.
Much of the rest world, however, is mired in a deep recession, and urban centers in the areas have turned into slums.
Globally almost 500 million people have been displaced by war. It is not confined to Africa or the rest of the developing world. Both India and China are dealing with internal uprisings. Faced with a growing insurgency along its eastern borders and Kashmir, it also has to deal with the flow of environmental refugees from Bangladesh.