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I've watched every snap of every game this season and here are some things that everyone is just getting wrong.
1. Jonathan Taylor is not a great running back (so far).
Against the Vikings, the Colts had as perfect of a game script as you could possibly imagine against a bad defense. The offensive line was busting open holes on just about every play. Yet Jonathan Taylor consistently took what was there and nothing more. He created very little. He's not noticeably fast, or quick, or elusive, and he doesn't fight through contact. I didn't watch him in college so maybe he just needs time, but based on his performance so far, I'm extremely underwhelmed. When Jordan Wilkins went in the game I didn't notice any difference. He will produce fine because he's got such a great offensive line and (now with Mack hurt) the opportunity, although I do think Hines will play more moving forward. But averaging 3.5 yards per carry behind that offensive line is not going to put him anywhere near the top of the running back pile.
Advice: Trade him while his value is peaking if you can get value (like CEH).
2. Tom Brady and Drew Brees have not lost it.
People love the stat about average yards per attempt for Drew Brees. But he hasn't lost his arm strength. He threw a 45-yard laser to Cook in game 1, and he has been accurate and zippy on his short passes. He's still Drew Brees. He won't put up 5,000 yards this season because the Saints' defense is solid, but he would if he had to. Meanwhile, people are saying Tom Brady has lost it as well. But he has looked razor sharp and hungry. I admit he has thrown a few bad balls (one particularly lame duck comes to mind against Carolina), but that game was in fierce winds. He had the lead and didn't need to force it. He also didn't have Godwin. And against the Saints, he had 4 passes that were perfectly thrown downfield that led to pass interference calls on the defense for over 100 yards. He should have been 27 for 40 for over 340 yards against the Saints. Now he gets his first game where both Godwin and Evans are healthy, and it's taking a little while for the new offense to click. But his ability has not dropped off and he should bounce back.
Advice: Target Evans or Godwin for a trade if the manager is willing, and hold Brees/Cook.
3. Mitchell Trubisky has not improved.
I just heard the Fantasy Footballers agree they would start Trubisky over Drew Brees. I don't understand how anyone who has watches football and makes a living giving fantasy advice can suggest this. Trubisky was awful against a bad Lions defense until the fourth quarter when just about every defensive back on the roster was injured. He then carved up a depleted secondary with all the time in the world, and even looked somewhat mediocre doing it. Against the Giants he had all the time in the world on every play and barely mustered 17 points. He tries to run like he's Lamar Jackson and gets stuffed for a yard. And his passes are off-target and poorly timed. He is simply not a good quarterback and I don't know why people think he has improved. I get that the angle is "the Falcons secondary sucks" but they've played Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott (in major comeback mode). Their defense is actually okay and Trubisky is terrible.
Advice: Ignore anybody saying start Trubisky.
4. Kyler Murray and the Cardinals are not an elite offense.
Murray was a popular fantasy darling this pre-season. Everyone wants to capture 2018 Mahomes and 2019 Lamar, and so Murray was the heir apparent. And now he started with two great fantasy games (against seemingly respectable defenses). But I just do not see it. His wind up to throw takes too long. His height is a problem in the pocket (several batted balls already and you know good defenses are going to keep doing it). His process is to check his first read, and either throw it or run. He hasn't been going through his progressions and seeing the field. The offensive line is not good, and he makes up for this with some incredible agility. But it's not sustainable. You don't orchestrate an elite offense by throwing behind the line of scrimmage on just about every play. This isn't college, and it's going to catch up to them. Just watch him play and then watch Lamar play and see just much better Lamar is as a runner. And watch Russell Wilson play and see just how much better Wilson is at seeing the field, knowing when to run, and going through his progressions. Stats should continue to be fine because they run a ton of plays, but I'm skeptical that the red zone success will continue.
Advice: If you have Murray, see if you can trade for Mahomes, Jackson, or Wilson (even if you have to pay a bit).
5. It's Nick Chubb's backfield, and Kareem Hunt is just living in it.
Nick Chubb is one of the best pure runners in the NFL, and the Browns offense is built around him. He is better than Hunt (although I do admit Hunt is a better route runnepass catcher). I see a team that wants to feed Nick Chubb, but is happy to give work to Kareem Hunt (a) when Chubb needs a break to keep Chubb fresh and (b) when the game is already out of hand. People love to throw stats around about how they were close to 50/50, but look the split when each of the first two games was still in contention (it wasn't long in game 1). And Hunt got almost all of his work in the fourth quarter of a blowout win against Cincy. Anybody watching the two backs can see who is the better runner, and the coaching staff sees it too. Starting Hunt is a dice roll on either a touchdown or late-game production and that's not what I look for in an RB2. If Chubb is healthy, Hunt is not a strong play.
Advice: I wouldn't trade Hunt because his value if Chubb gets hurt is through the roof, but don't start him over legitimate options hoping he continues his early success. As for Chubb, start him with confidence every week.
Feel free to push back on me - it's only my opinion. But it's all based on what I see on the field.
EDIT: I really appreciate the counter-arguments in the comments - thanks for taking the time to push back. I want to recognize a few valid counter points:
- Jonathan Taylor has elite speed in the open field. So if they can get him in space, he could do some real damage. I hold to my criticisms as a runner between the tackles.
- Drew Brees is not chucking bombs. He isn't "done" and his arm isn't "shot" but he does seem to lack the confidence in the deep ball that he once had - I can see that. But he was like this last year when he led the Saints to a playoff run with 27 TDs and 4 picks in 11 regular season games. I expect a similar pace with Michael Thomas back.
- Nothing. Trubisky sucks and if you want to play him you go right ahead.
- Kyler Murray is a solid fantasy QB. He is accurate and can throw well on the run. And there is a difference between real life and fantasy. His rushing production will sustain him as a great fantasy option, and he will continue to be a good quarterback in real life. I'll admit that. My point is more of a counter-argument to the common narrative that he will ascend to the Wilson-Mahomes-Jackson tier. I don't see it.
- I probably overstated my case because I do think Hunt sees 35-40% of the work. I just think Chubb is good enough on 60-70% of the work to be an RB1 and that any back getting 30-40% of the work is a dicey starter in fantasy.
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